ALTERNATIVES

A few years ago the United Nations Bureau for Population surprised the world with prognostics on demography in relation to the sustainability of European retirement systems. Many read the warning as a strong recommendation to Europe to allow the immigration of many millions of extra - European immigrants in order to keep the relationship between working and non-working citizens at a prudent level and thus save funding for the pension systems of Europe.

The press and the policy makers read the statement more as a strict warning to an ageing society than as mere hypothesis. Yet governments leaders did nothing to reassure their populations against such dire prognostics, nor did they tackle the many interlinked problems which demography will cause to the welfare and the productivity of our European continent.
We did not see any head of state or Prime Minister come out with an analysis or with a project to formulate a number of "ALTERNATIVES" in order to forestall the need of massive immigration from outside Europe. This is a grave default of our leaders and cause of much unrest in our populations

In think tanks an analysis of such matters is not lacking and the idea that a great number of immigrants would save the retirement systems has been abandoned.
Yet many remedies to the consequences of an ageing and diminishing population need still to be considered. How can our continent adapt to such new circumstances ? In which way can we diminish costs, in what manner can we increase productivity, our global competititivity and perhaps even a modicum of growth in such a new situation ?

The question of uncontrolled immigration is a different but a related problem. That question is not unique to Europe, and we can learn much from other regions like the the United States
The United States also has a lot of experience on cost and benefits of immigration, and on the question whether employers have valid reasons for demanding the admission of foreign workers. However the American demographic situation is a different one and shows still considerable growth, if legal immigration is included.
The more general and clturaL American public concerns about loss of identity on the other hand are again similar to what we find in Europe because of a weakening of the once to thriving "Americanisation schools"the permissively in which languages other than English are given right of citizenship etcetera. The way in which American politicians forced mismanagement upon Fanny May and Freddy Mac in order to give even the poor their own houses (sometimes with encouragement of employers who needed immigrant labour, legal or illegal) is also a lesson which should not escape European attention, since it is one of the causes of the present world financial crisis.

Japan could also offer a number of considerations and practical experience which could be useful guidance to Europe.
We therefore have every reason and can also use outside experience in engaging in an genuine reflection on

………the ALTERNATIVES

Why should a decreasing population frighten us ? Several of us have in our lifetime seen an extraordinary increase in population. I for one saw a nearly doubling of the population of the Netherlands. Why would it not be possible to adapt in a convenient way to a stationary or even a decreasing situation ? Our capacities of social engineering may be strongly challenged, but precisely therefore a free open discussion is needed.

Manners of thinking, of fostering our cultural identity and innovation, even changes in lifestyle may be points to consider.
I remember a few years ago Norbert Walter, the chief economist of Deutsche Bank addressing a gathering of our OECD people on matters of our own future and on questions of development cooperation. At one point he challenged us by saying that perhaps generations should re-learn to live together,

He did not refrain a jocular reference to the . . . . . . .

the long houses which the Vikings in ancient times, the Bataks in Indonesia and Indians in more recent times and even today have known…….. But we can easily add the big family houses of yesterday in our own times where decent living together and in mutual respect and relative independence would be possible. Anyhow housing and caring, and even transportation and reduction of mobility are things worthy of consideration. That at least is the KIND of thinking and questioning which we should not reject but use in an effort to become more inventive on our prospects in a decreasing and ageing society.

The list of topics for our consideration would indeed be a long one and a daunting one. But if the linkages between the topics are explored we may find helpful reinforcing elements.

It is this encompassing and multi dimensional discussion which our political leaders have failed to initiate when the United National Population Bureau threw the gauntlet. For our website www.VOICES-OF-EUROPE.ORG possibilities are obviously very limited. But that does not exempt us from trying to foster a wider group into a courteous and productive discussion.. We shall try to follow-up on some of the topics listed above, and would appreciate any help.

Anton Smitsendonk Paris, Beijing May 2009

We are grateful for the " Long House " idea
since it is helps us getting to think
out of our " box ".

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